Making Trey Mancini A 2019 Draft Champion Target

Trey Mancini entered the 2018 fantasy baseball season as a somewhat hot pick. His overall NFBC ADP was a slightly aggressive 151st overall. Mancini’s min pick was much more shocking at 89th overall. Of course for anyone paying attention they know that price is now laughable. Before those who were burned on Mancini last year write him off for 2019, take time to consider that the skills, while not well above average, have had nice consolidation and could be on a leg-up in the near future.

Looking at Mancini’s overall lines for both 2017 and 2018 it is easy to see where he lost value – RBI and batting average.

Season AB R HR RBI SB BA OBP
2017 543 65 24 78 1 0.293 0.338
2018 582 69 24 58 0 0.242 0.299

Much like with Cedric Mullins II, team context will continue to be an issue for Mancini moving forward. It is, however, safe to assume that Mancini will be hitting somewhere in the middle third of the lineup.

Mancini’s batting eye stayed consistent year-over-year. Unfortunately, consistency in that area still means a slightly below average batting eye. Contact hasn’t become a glaring issue for Mancini to this point. If the walk-rate were to pick up we could see more stability in Mancini’s overall batting line.

The year-over-year drop in ISO and rise in ground ball rate are also cause for concern. Mancini has relied on a 20% +/- HR/FB rate both seasons to reach his 24 home runs. The positive of this situation comes in the fact that we’re one small adjustment away from Mancini becoming a 30+ home run bat. Let us not forget that Mancini hit eight opposite field home runs in 2017 and seven in 2018. Camden Yards is a great place to put the ball over the fence and I expect Mancini to continue calling it home next year.

Mancini will enter 2019 fantasy baseball drafts with dual position eligibility (1b & OF) making him a prime target for me in early Draft Champion leagues. It’s not out of this world to tag an upside of 75/30/75/0/.260/.335 on Mancini for next year.

Mancini’s #2EarlyMock ADP is 265th overall.

Photo Credit: Keith Allison

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